While not typically in my morning rotation, the other day I happened to put on Mike & Mike in the Morning (ESPN) … just in time for their AFC East division breakdown. Aside from the occasional humorous commercial, I don’t really know too much about these clowns and - after giving them 20 minutes of my life – I have no intention of becoming a loyal listener. Their prediction for the 2010 Pats, however, caught my attention. Greenberg had them going 8-8 this season, while Golic went 9-7. They proceeded to give some pissy breakdown, riddled with disdain, about how winning in New England is over. Phhffft. 8-8? G.F.Y.M. Err, I mean, I respectfully disagree.
The AFC is one of the most competitive divisions in the league – and the 2010 season shows no signs of being different. What keeps things interesting are the heated rivalries that exist within the division. These four teams, no matter how they are playing overall, manage to bring their A-games when facing each other on the field.
NFL “experts” have gone on record saying that the Jets and the Dolphins are the biggest competitors for taking the division title from the Patriots. No shit. You think this is the year the Bills decide to win a couple? Doubtful. The Patriots have won the division seven times since 2000 and, while having experienced some pretty serious setbacks over the past 2 years or so, remain contenders to win it again this year. That’s right, Mike and Mike, I went there. And now I’m going to break it down a little bit more …
I’ll start with the division’s most obvious non-factor: the Buffalo Bills. This team has seemed to do everything in its power to follow in the footsteps of the 2008 Detroit Lions. Glaring problems on both sides of the ball; drafting the best available player instead of addressing specific needs (ie – selecting a running back, the position with the most depth, versus a quarterback); Lee Evans assuming the role as the team’s offensive weapon after TOs departure; weakest passing game in the league; hiring a head coach (Chan Gailey) that couldn’t hack it as an offensive coordinator in Kansas City … this team is effed. The consistently dwindling Bills fan base has gone on record saying that expectations are low in year one of this rebuilding period. This is understandable – not that expectations have been high in Buffalo since the late 80s. If you are a Bills fan, prepare for a train wreck of a season … and may God have mercy on your soul. At best this team is going 4-12 but we wouldn’t be shocked with a 2 or 3 win season.
The Miami Dolphins did some serious work in the off-season and certainly will enter this year as the division’s most unpredictable team. When Pennington went down last season, Chad Henne was able to step up and play really well … especially considering he didn’t have many targets on the field to throw to. This year, Ronnie Brown returns after lisfranc surgery on his foot and Brendon “The Beast” Marshall has been added to the receiving corp. That being said, Henne does have potential but is still a year or two away from being a true impact player. This, combined with a suspect pass-rush defense will cause some problems for the Phins this season. Because the defense is such a liability, Miami is going 9-7 this season … invert those numbers if Henne really blows it.
Many are predicting that this is the year the AFC will experience a shift in power, with the Jets taking the title. I admit that the two teams will be neck-and-neck for the division title this season, but I’m not yet convinced that the crown has already been claimed.
For the Jets to succeed, Mark Sanchez will need to be consistent. Last season’s ranking of 28th in passer rating and a 12-20 TD/INT ratio will not fly if the Jets want another run at the AFC Championship. A notable off-season move was acquiring shutdown corner Antonio Cromartie who, despite his baby-mama drama off the field (7 kids with 6 women), is reliable and consistent. The Jets had two big losses as well, saying goodbye to both Kerry Rhodes and Thomas Jones. The overhyped Shonn Green will be taking over Jones role. Santonio Holmes will sit out the first four weeks of the season due to a suspension and is one good fuck-up away from sitting out the entire season. It is worth noting, though, that he is in a contract year so he has all the motivation in the world to lock it up. Boiled down, Sanchez has plenty of weapons – he just needs to gain their trust, and be able to find them on the field. This, combined with a dangerously good defense could have the Jets heading towards a near perfect season … it’s unlikely, though, that all of those stars will align. More probable is an 11-5 season. (T1AOB sidenote: 14 or 15 are numbers that will more likely refer to the number of post-game press conference meltdowns by Rex Ryan).
Last but not least, the New England Patriots. With the best quarterback and one of the best receivers of the decade in Moss, this offense cannot be ruled out. Maroney is a question mark but if he can manage to hold on to the ball in the red zone, the Pats will benefit immensely. Belichick must commit to sitting him down if he struggles. Our secondary could only be described as shaky last season … but they were young. Merriweather and Sanders are improved and we have two solid corners in Bodden and Butler. Top draft-pick McCourty is expected to contribute immediately – hopefully addressing an issue that has existed in New England ever since Asante Samuel left in 2008. Our schedule this year is tougher than others in the division as we face San Diego and Indy while Miami and the Jets face shitty teams like Oakland and Tennessee, and Denver and Houston (respectively). Miami scored again by facing the Steelers at home in week 7 – which should be Big Ben’s first week back, unless the league does something stupid and shortens his suspension. NE faces Pitt in week 10 at Heinz Field. This team is certainly not without its hurdles – the defense is young and the offensive line is aged – but the Patriots prove time and time again that they can find ways to reinvent themselves using what is available to them. Being aggressively optimistic, I’m going 12-4.
How do you like them apples, Mike x2?